4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 121.1606
Well, a new week has begun. However, the problems remain the same. The EUR/USD currency pair continues the same completely groundless upward movement. After another meager correction to the moving average line, the upward movement was resumed. We have repeatedly said that no matter what is the fundamental background, you should always trade following the technical picture. Now this postulate is more important than ever. According to the "foundation", the euro should have started a noticeable fall a couple of months ago, but instead continues to update 2.5-year highs. Thus, there is no point in trading against the trend. It is better to continue following it while keeping in mind a possible downward turn and a strong fall of the pair.
At the end of last week, there were two quite important events that we talked about at the end of last week. This is the ECB meeting and the EU summit. If the EU summit was more formal for the euro/dollar pair, then the decisions taken at the meeting of the European regulator could have caused the fall of the euro currency, since the expansion of the quantitative easing program is a "dovish" step. And all "dovish" decisions, whether it is a rate cut or an expansion of the quantitative easing program, are a "bearish factor" for the currency. However, traders ignored this event. Thus, the euro continues to grow. Traders continue to ignore the most important fact – in the fourth quarter, the EU economy will again sink by 2-3% (this was even stated by the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde), in contrast to the US, where growth can be recorded. Therefore, we continue to insist that the euro is very much overbought, and the market continues to inflate like a soap bubble.
Meanwhile, in the US, the fundamental background is almost empty. A month ago, almost every day, we witnessed new high-profile statements by Donald Trump, his entourage, or opponents, as well as interesting and important events, however, now it is completely calm. Trump lost the election and all of America. All of the American media calmed down at once. Most of the media simply switched from the Trump figure to other more interesting events. Thus, even all of Trump's attempts to challenge the results of the election or the counting of votes in a particular state were viewed with laziness. And the results of Trump are simply "gorgeous": about 30 lawsuits in courts of various states and almost all were rejected for lack of evidence. Well, on Saturday, it became known that the US Supreme Court rejected the claim of the state of Texas, which was joined by 17 other states. Naturally, all these 17 states are headed by Republicans. Supporters of Donald Trump demanded to invalidate the election results in the States of Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton argued that these states did not comply with the rules and regulations that relate to the processing of ballots. However, the US Supreme Court has ruled that there is no legal or factual basis for launching a judicial investigation. Recall that earlier, it was the US Supreme Court that Trump had high hopes for. The fact is that six of the nine Supreme Court justices were appointed at different times by Republicans, so they could help the current President in the case of possible election fraud. This is exactly what Trump was counting on when he hurried to appoint "his own man" (Amy Barrett) to the Supreme Court seat vacated after the death of Ruth Ginsburg. As you can see, this did not give Trump any dividends, so the venture with the Supreme Court can also be considered a complete failure. On Twitter, Trump wrote: "The Supreme Court let us down. No wisdom, no courage!" In turn, the press secretary of the White House administration Kaylee McEnany said: "The court evaded, you can not say otherwise. They covered themselves with procedural issues and refused to use the power given to them to comply with the constitution." According to McEnany, the court was presented with irrefutable evidence of election irregularities, however, "they were ignored". According to the press secretary, the US Supreme Court rejected the claim because the state of Texas could not explain on what basis its authorities are interested in the election process and the counting of votes in other states. However, it is extremely difficult for the public to side with the team of Donald Trump in this matter, since no evidence of the Democrats' guilt has been presented so far. And this is not just our desire, the desire of the Americans, these are the words of Donald Trump, who has repeatedly stated about "violations", about "evidence that will be published in the near future". But, as we can see, the current US President once again made an unconfirmed statement, so the majority of Americans remain on the side of the Supreme Court and Joe Biden, who won the election by a large margin. At the same time, Trump's lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, said that the case was dismissed due to "procedural capacity", so he will now refer the case to the district court. "We are not finished," Giuliani said.
Also on Monday, there was a vote in the Electoral College. We have already said that this is a simple formality, however, surprises are still possible. However, they still did not affect the overall results of the vote: Joe Biden won, as expected. Well, the US currency, even though the US elections are over, the country is slowly coming out of the crisis, mass vaccination of the population begins, the stock market only recently showed a record value, and continues to fall. Thus, we continue to recommend that traders consider long positions, especially since both linear regression channels are still directed upwards, as is the moving average line. Now there is no signal of the end of the upward movement, despite the data from the COT report and the "foundation".
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of December 15 is 66 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2082 and 1.2214. The reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a new round of corrective movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2146
S2 – 1.2085
S3 – 1.2024
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2207
R2 – 1.2268
R3 – 1.2329
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair is trying to continue its upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in buy orders with targets of 1.2207 and 1.2268 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average with targets of 1.2085 and 1.2024.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com