Overview :
- In one-hour time frame :
Bears could aim to reclaim 102.60 mark amid Japan stimulus hopes. The overnight move beyond the previous double-bottom support near the 102.60 - 103.11 region might have already set the phase for additional profits.
This week, the USD/JPY pair reached a new minimum at the price of 102.60; but the pair rebounded to close at 103.30. So, today the price may reach one more minimum around the spot of 102.60 - 102.10, which coincides major support levels.
Today, the USD/JPY pair is challenging the psychological resistance at 103.68. Hence, the resistance is seen at the level of 103.68 in the one-hour time frame.
We expect the USD/JPY pair to continues moving in a downtrend below the level of 103.68 towards the first target at 102.60, while major resistance is found at 103.93 (100% Fibonacci).
On the downside, a clear break at the level of 102.60 could trigger further bearish pressure testing 102.10, then continue towards the next objective of 101.65.
In four-hour time frame :
Resistance of the USD/JPY pair is seen at the level of 103.68. The pair is trading below its resistance for a while. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below resistance (103.68).
Furthermore, you should bear in mind that resistance has set at 103.68. The USD/JPY pair has not made a significant movement from yesterday.
The bias remains bearish in the nearest term testing 102.60 or lower. If the trend can break the first target at 102.60, the market will call for a strong bearish trend towards the next target at 102.10 on the four-hour chart.
Please, note that the prices of 103.68 and 103.93 coincide with the Fibonacci of 50% and 61.8% respectively.
On the other hand, stop loss has always been in consideration. Thus it will be useful to set it above the last double top at the level of 103.93 (notice that the major resistance today has set at 104.76).
Forecast :
- As a result, it is gainful to sell below this price of 103.68 with targets at 102.60, 102.10 and then 101.65. However, the bullish trend is still expected for the upcoming days as long as the price is above 103.93.
Daily Technical level :
- Resistance 3 : 104.76
- Major resistance : 104.28
- Minor resistance : 103.93
- Intraday pivot point : 103.68
- Minor support : 102.60
- Major support : 102.10
- Support 3 : 101.65
