We had a lot of noises in the markets recently. The US debt ceiling debate remained a major focus as the drama dragged on before the August 2 deadline. Moody’s warned earlier in the month of a possible US downgrade. But the rating agency said in a statement on Friday that the triple A rating would likely be kept if the government could continue to pay bond-holders even if a deal can’t be reached by the deadline. The Greece situation seems to be solved by markets’ focus turned to Spain now as Moody’s warned of a Spain downgrade. IMF...
Real GDP grew at just a 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter, and revised data show output rose at a miniscule 0.4 percent pace in Q1. The recession was also a bit deeper and there has been less of a recovery. The Recovery Is Losing Steam as Stimulus Winds Down Real GDP rose at just 1.3 percent pace in the second quarter, and growth during the first quarter was revised down to just a 0.4 percent annual rate. While real GDP grew slightly more in the second quarter than it did in the first, the recovery clearly lost momentum during the first half of this...
USD/CAD – 0.9572 Recent wave: Only wave v of c is still in progress and may extend to 0.9400 Trend: Down Original strategy : Sell again at 0.9610, Target, 0.9410, Stop: 0.9670 New strategy  : Sell again at 0.9635, Target, 0.9435, Stop: 0.9700 Although the greenback has rebounded after the release of weaker-than-expected Canadian production data and this week’s rise from 0.9407 may bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 0.9590-95 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9780 to 0.9407), however, renewed selling interest should emerge around...
The USD first rallies despite continued lack of debt ceiling solution but then plummets on a horrible GDP print. A nervous weekend awaits, as does an action packed week ahead. It’s getting tougher every day to come up with something new to say about what is going on: Washington still can’t put together a deal and doubt continues to fester about the quality of the latest Greek bailout and the clumsy attempt to address the EuroZone sovereign debt issue with the EFSF. Meanwhile, Moody’s put Spanish debt on review for a possible downgrade and...
Technical Setup and Fundamental Trigger: Ahead of today’s US GDP data, the GBP/USD almost completed an AB=CD pattern. Almost, in that there was not exact wave equality, but the second downswing was cut short as it tested the 200SMA in the 1H chart. This was a technical setup for a bullish attempt. The 2Q GDP release for the US came out lower than expected at 1.3% (forecast: 1.7%), and the previous quarters data was revised down heavily from 1.8% to 0.4%. The GBP/USD accelerated its bullish attempt after this release. Bullish Scenario: It is now taking...
