Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range after hitting seven-year high 115.60 on Friday. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 87.52 versus 88.06 early Friday) after fewer-than-expected 214,000 increase in U.S. October non-farm payrolls (versus forecast +233,000) and less-than-expected 0.1% increase in U.S. October average hourly wages (versus forecast +0.2%), although the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8% from 5.9% in September (versus forecast for no change). USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan's export sales and lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.312% versus 2.377% late Thursday) as weaker-than-expected U.S. October jobs growth trimmed odds that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates sooner than expected, while Fed Chairwoman Yellen said in a conference in Paris on Friday that "supportive policy remains necessary" given the slow and unsteady economic recovery. But USD sentiment is soothed by the larger-than-expected $15.92 billion increase in U.S. total outstanding consumer credit in September (versus forecast +$15.7 billion). USD/JPY losses are also tempered by demand from Japan's importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and improved risk appetite after stronger-than-expected 11.6% growth in China October exports (versus forecast +10.0%) and larger-than-expected China October trade surplus of $45.4 billion (versus forecast $42.3 billion).
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is indicator bullish, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing but stochastics turned bearish at overbought zone, bearish dark-cloud-cover candlestick pattern was completed on Friday.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 115.15 and the second target at 115.50. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 113.80. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 113. The pivot point is at 114.75.
Resistance levels:
115.15
115.50
115.75
Support levels:
113.80
113
112.75
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