Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate. It is underpinned by the negative yen sentiment as speculation persists that Prime Minister Abe might call a snap election and delay a second sales tax increase despite Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga's denial Wednesday. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.371% versus 2.359% late Monday), demand from Japan's importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge edged up 0.77% to 13.02) as U.S. stocks closed mixed overnight (S&P 500 slipped 0.07%: Nasdaq gained 0.31%). Daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated in the overbought zone, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 116.25 and the second target at 116.90. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 114.20. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 113.80. The pivot point is at 114.65.
Resistance levels:
116.25
116.90
117.35
Support levels:
114.20
113.80
113
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