Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Liquidity was thin later on a trading day as financial markets in U.S. are shut for Thanksgiving Day. USD/JPY is undermined by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.246% versus 2.261% late Tuesday), weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 87.67 versus 87.89 early Wednesday) after more-than-expected 313,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Nov. 22 (versus forecast 289,000), larger-than-expected drop in ISM-Chicago PMI to 60.8 in November from October's 66.2 (versus forecast 64.0); less-than-expected 0.2% increase in U.S. October personal income (versus forecast +0.4%) and 0.2% increase in spending (versus forecast +0.3%); fewer-than-expected U.S. October new home sales of 458,000 (versus forecast 470,000), unexpected 1.1% drop in U.S. October pending home sales index (versus forecast for 0.5% rise) and weaker-than-expected November University of Michigan final consumer sentiment index of 88.8 versus forecast 90.0 and preliminary reading of 89.4. USD/JPY is also weighed by Japan's export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers and Bank of Japan's large-scale easing policy.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is tilting negative as stochastics is turned bearish at the overbought levels, MACD histogram bars are turning negative.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below its pivot point. Short position is recommended with the first target at 117. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 116.65. The pivot point stands at 117.85. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, then it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. In that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 117 and the second target at 116.65.
Resistance levels:
118.20
118.60
119
Support levels:
117
116.65
116.35
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