Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high 119.15 on Monday. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY amid decreased investor risk tolerance (VIX fear gauge rose 7.2% to 14.29, S&P 500 closed 0.68% lower at 2,053.44 overnight) on weak manufacturing PMI data out of China and Europe and Moody's downgrade of Japan's credit rating by one notch to A1; disappointing U.S. Black Friday weekend as National Retail Federation estimated that retail spending over the post-Thanksgiving weekend fell 11%. USD/JPY is also afected by Japan's export sales, broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 87.98 versus 88.30 early Monday) as oil prices rebound (Nymex crude hit four-and-a-half year low of $63.72/bbl Monday but settled up $2.85 at $69.00/bbl). But USD sentiment are soothed by the less-than-expected drop in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 58.7 in November from 59.0 in October (versus forecast 58.0), stronger Markit final U.S. November manufacturing PMI of 54.8 versus flash reading of 54.7. USD/JPY downside also limited by demand from Japan's importers; higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.359% versus 2.196% late Friday); Bank of Japan's large-scale easing policy.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing, but MACD is in a bearish mode.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.45 and the second target at 119.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.10. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 117.85. The pivot point is at 118.50.
Resistance levels:
119.45
119.70
120
Support levels:
118.10
117.85
117.60
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