Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a seven-year high 119.87 on Wednesday. It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 88.94 versus 88.62 early Wednesday) and higher shorter-dated U.S. Treasury yields (2-year at 0.559% versus 0.539% late Tuesday) as stronger-than-expected U.S. November ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 59.3 (versus forecast 57.6 and October's 57.1) outweighed fewer-than-expected 208,000 increase in U.S ADP new private-sector jobs in November (versus forecast +223,000) and lower-than-expected revised U.S. 3Q productivity of +2.3% (versus forecast +2.5%) & 3Q unit labor costs of -1.0% (versus forecast -0.7%); U.S. Federal Reserve November Beige Book report offered a broadly upbeat view of the economy, recent hawkish speeches from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and New York Fed chief William Dudley reinforced expectations that U.S. interest rates would start to rise by mid-2015. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers, Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and positive investor risk appetite as Wall Street climbed to record highs overnight amid stabilizing oil prices and accommodative monetary policies from major central banks (VIX fear gauge eased 2.96% to 12.47; S&P 500 hit all-time high 2,076.28 before closing up 0.38% at 2,074.33). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales; caution ahead of U.S. payrolls report Friday.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish, five and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.15 and the second target at 120.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 118.50. The pivot point is at 119.45.
Resistance levels:
120.15
120.60
121
Support levels:
119
118.50
118
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