Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a buoyant tone. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 8.57% to 19.31; S&P 500 closed up 1.16% at 2,025.9 overnight) as data showing the eurozone fell into deflation for the first time in more than five years bolstered expectations for the European Central Bank to engage in full-blown quantitative easing as early as Jan. 22, while balanced minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting suggest the U.S. central bank will be in no rush to raise interest rates before the middle of this year. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers, the Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 92.265 Wednesday, last at 92.02 versus 91.73 early Wednesday) on narrower-than-expected U.S. November trade deficit of $39 billion (versus forecast $42 billion), while ADP report showing 241,000 increase in U.S. December private sector jobs--although below forecast +250,000--bolstered hopes that Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data would be robust. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. two-year Treasury yields (last at 0.613% versus 0.633% late Tuesday) after release of FOMC minutes.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is still negative-biased as MACD and slow stochastic indicators are in bearish mode, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.5. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 118. The pivot point stands at 119.50. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.95 and the second target at 120.3.
Resistance levels:
120.3
120.65
121
Support levels:
118.65
118.05
117.75
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
