Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by selling the yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 1.82% to 14.56, S&P 500 closed 0.03% lower at 2,109.66, DJIA off 0.13% at 18,116.84 overnight) as oil prices extend Friday's losses. The pair is also influenced by the U.S. existing home sales fell 4.9% on-month to 4.82 million in January (versus forecast -1.2% to 4.98 million), while caution prevails ahead of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's presentation of Monetary Policy Report to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.059% versus 2.133% late Friday) and the Japanese exports. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan's importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.55 versus 94.30 early Monday), despite weak U.S. existing home sales and a drop in Dallas Fed manufacturing index to -11.2 in February from -4.4 in January (versus forecast -5.5).
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is neutral.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.90 and the second target at 120.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.75. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.25. The pivot point is at 119.
Resistance levels:
119.90
120.35
120.75
Support levels:
118.75
118.25
117.95
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