Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. The US second estimate GDP for 4Q that is to be released on Friday at 13:30 GMT will be in the spotlight (forecast +2.0%). USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.28 versus 94.19 early Thursday), higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.038% versus 1.969% late Wednesday), thanks to 2.8% increase in US January durable goods orders (versus forecast +0.6%) and a rise in U.S. January core CPI by 0.2% on-month (versus forecast +0.1%) that raised odds that the Federal Reserve interest rates hike could come as early as June.
USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and news that Japan's Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid Associations would increase its exposure of domestic stocks to 25% from 8%. But the USD sentiment is dented by more-than-expected number of 313,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended Feb. 21 (versus forecast 290,000). The USD/JPY gains are also tempered by the Japanese exports, selling of the yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.51% to 13.91, S&P 500 closed 0.15% lower at 2,110.74 overnight) on renewed sell-off in oil prices and by positions adjustment ahead of the weekend.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is bearish, but the MACD is in bullish mode, five-day moving average is meandering sideways.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.65 and the second target at 119.95. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.25. The pivot point is at 119.
Resistance levels:
119.65
119.95
120.35
Support levels:
118.50
118.25
117.95
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
