Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. USD/JPY is underpinned by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit near-12-year high 99.985 Wednesday, last 99.67 versus 98.55 early Wednesday) amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will abandon the term "patient" from its interest-rate statement next week and could raise interest rates from near zero as soon as June. Fed's James Bullard, in an interview with the Financial Times published Wednesday, warned that the end of the Fed's near-zero interest-rate policy is overdue given the rapid pace of improvement in the jobs market. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from the Japanese importers, and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. The USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japanese exports, lower longer-dated US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.108% versus 2.121% late Tuesday), selling of the yen crosses amid diminished investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 1.08% to 16.87, S&P 500 closed 0.19% lower at 2,040.24 overnight).
Technical comment:
The daily chart is positive-biased as the MACD is bullish, stochastics stays elevated at overbought levels, 5 and 15-day moving averages are advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 122 and the second target at 122.50. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 120.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 120.20. The pivot point is at 120.90.
Resistance levels:
122
122.50
122.75
Support levels:
120.60
120.20
120
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