Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is underpinned by the yen-funded carry trades amid improved investor risk sentiment as China cut interest rates for the second time in four months on Saturday, reducing its one-year lending rate to 5.35% from 5.6% and its one-year deposit rate to 2.5% from 2.75%. While China's manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved to 49.9 in February from 49.8 in January (versus forecast for no change at 49.8) and China's non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in February from 53.7 in January. USD/JPY is also supported by demand from Japan's importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 95.45 versus 95.28 early Friday) on stronger-than-expected US 4Q GDP growth by 2.2% (versus forecast +2.0%), the higher final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index of 95.4 (versus forecast 94.0 and preliminary reading of 93.6) for February. But the USD sentiment is dented by the larger-than-expected fall in the US ISM Chicago PMI to 45.8 in February from 59.4 in January (forecast 58.0), weaker-than-expected 1.7% on-month increase in the US January pending home sales index (versus forecast +2.0%). The USD/JPY gains also tempered by lower US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.002% versus 2.014% late Thursday) and the Japanese exports.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as stochastics is neutral, but the MACD is bullish. Five and 15-day moving averages are rising.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120 and the second target at 120.35. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.60. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.60. The pivot point is at 119.50.
Resistance levels:
120
120.35
120.75
Support levels:
119.10
118.60
118.25
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