Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with buoyant tone after hitting a five-week low of 118.33 on Thursday. It is underpinned by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.33 versus 96.92 early Thursday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.996% versus 1.920% late Wednesday) after a fewer-than-expected naumber of 282,000 U.S. jobless claims in week ended on March 21 (versus forecast 290,000), a stronger-than-expected rise in Markit flash U.S. composite PMI to 58.5 in March from 57.2 in February (versus forecast 57.0), while Fed's Lockhart said that the strong U.S. economy meant that summer Fed meetings are "in play" for possible rate increases, and Fed's Bullard said that interest rates should be raises as soon as the risks for holding them near zero for too long remained significant.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining, but stochastics is turning bullish at oversold levels.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.60 and the second target at 119.95. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.65. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.25. The pivot point is at 118.85.
Resistance levels:
119.60
119.95
120.30
Support levels:
118.65
118.25
117.85
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