The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in March, declined in April. The Index stands at 95.2 now down from 101.4 in March. The US economy has been printing weak or negative data. “Consumer confidence, which had rebounded in March, gave back all of the gain and more in April," said Lynn Franco, the Director of Economic Indicators, at The Conference Board. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, traders expect dovish signals from today's meeting. The USD index is trading below the previous swing low of 96.17. In case the price closes below 96.17 on a weekly closing basis, we can conclude the medium term (2-3months)was capped at 100.00 mark. The index has the nearest support found at 20Wsma 95.20. In the daily chart, the index closed below 20&50dsma. But not yet the bearish crossover takes place. The major pairs EUR/USD & GBP/USD, though these pairs close above 20& 50sma. Bullish crossover was not given yet. We hope today's meeting will change the direction.
USD/CAD
At yesterday's session, BOC' Poloz made a speech before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance in Ontario. He mainly concentrated on lower oil prices. He said, "Oil prices are an important component of Canada's terms of trade and one of the key drivers of movements in the Canadian dollar. Now, the fall in oil prices has set in motion complex dynamics, including sectorial and regional adjustments, which will take the time to work their way through the economy. The negative effects of lower oil prices hit some sectors of the economy right away."
Technical view: We recommended selling with sl 1.2350 for targets at 1.2100 and 1.1875 (dated April 21, 2015 article). As of now, the pair made a low at 1.2031. The pair has strong resistance between 1.2210 and 1.2270 100Dema and 100Dsma respectively. Technically speaking, until the price closes below 100dsma or 100dema, bearish view remains in play. Besides, the bearish cross took place in the daily chart. On the downside, the support is found at 1.1850 and 1.1690. The weekly 38.2 fib is seen at 1.1980.
Intarday view: Ahead of today's event, CAD is trading higher against USD. Hourly resistance is seen at 1.2045 and 1.2090. On a daily basis, until the pair closes below 1.2170, use every rise to sell. Today, we expect the pair to touch 1.1950, 1.1900, and 1.1875 on the downside.
