Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry continued to show growth for the 24th consecutive month in March 2015, increasing by 4.2% compared with March 2014. This was the longest period of sustained year-on-year growth since May 2008 when there were 31 periods of growth. On the month, the quantity bought decreased by 0.5% compared with February 2015. The largest decrease was reported by petrol stations which fell by 6.2%. In the financial year ending 2015, public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks was 87.3 billion pounds; a decrease of 11.1 billion pounds compared with the same period in the financial year ending 2014. UK retail sales fell in March.
The pound fell to 1.4960 and changed its direction towards the neckline. Soft data from the US helped the cable recover from the lows. Today, traders eye US data on core durable goods orders and durable goods orders. Both the data will print negative readings. In this case, buy the cable above 1.5080 with a target at 1.5160 (March 18 high). In case the price managed to stay above 1.5160, bulls can extend their paw towards 1.5185 and 1.5210. Before the UK's election, these levels are going to be printed as tops for the near term. In the 4-hour chart, the prices are forming a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. Prices are consolidating on a verge of breakout. On a daily basis, the cable managed to close above 50Dsma at yesterday's session. These factors favor bulls. Intraday support is found at 1.5000. We recommend selling below 1.5000 with small targets at 1.4970 and 1.4960. Real selling is expected only below 1.4960 for another 100 pips downfall towards 1.4860.
Trade: Buy above 1.5080
Small trade- Selling below 1.5000
Aggressive selling below -1.4950, panic below 1.4850
