According to the Federal Statistical Office , the index of import prices decreased by 1.4% in March 2015 compared with the corresponding month of the preceding year. In February 2015 and in January 2015, the annual rates of change were –3.0% and –4.4%, respectively. From February 2015 to March 2015 the index rose by 1.0%.
Today, traders eye US CB consumer confidence data. We expect another weak set of data from the US today. Traders are preparing for Wednesday's FOMC statements.
Technical view:
Weekly view: The pair is trading at a 3-week high. The pair has been extending its gains for 3 consecutive days. At yesterday's session, the pair managed to breached the 50Dsma but was unable to close above that. Today, the pair rejected at the same 50Dsma again. The nearest support was found at 1.0770 20Dsama and double bottom was placed at 1.0660. The price has been developing higher highs and higher lows in the four-hour chart. The key trend-change level exists at 1.0660. On the higher side, the strong supply zone was placed between 1.1036 and 1.1053. The next fresh upswing will be available in case the price closes above 1.1053. The 100.00 FE was placed at 1.1110. Ahead of the FOMC statements, we expect wild moves. The pair can skyrocketed towards the supply zone at 1.1050 and even higher to 1.1100. The developing Greece talks supported the euro along with the weak USD.
Intraday view: At the Asian session, the euro is trading lower against USD. Compared to the Monday's closing price 1.0892, the pair is trading at 1.0876. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0890 50Dsma and 1.0910. Intraday support is found at 1.0860 34hrsma and 1.0848 30mins swing low. We recommend selling below 1.0840 with small targets at 1.0820 61.8FE, 1.0800, and 1.0785. Strong selling is likely to emerge below 1.0785 only. On the higher side, we recommend buying above 1.0910 with targets at 1.0925 80.0 fib, 1.0950, and 1.0966. Bulls can challenge 1.1040 and 1.1050 in case the price gets above the previous day's high of 1.0930. Before the FOMC meeting, we expect the pair to try to move towards the supply zone at 1.1035-1.1055. Many traders predict dovish signal from the FOMC meeting, which will lead to further weakness in USD. So,the euro might climb towards 1.1000, 1.1050, and 1.1100.
Trade: Buying above 1.0910, strong movement above 1.0930
