The cross has been consolidating at the lower levels for 3 weeks. The trend favors bears in all time frames. The monthly resistance is found at 1.3775 50msma. The cross edged lower towards 1.3024 after attempting to breach 200Wsma for five times. The cross has the nearest support line at 1.2940 100.00 FE and April 2013 low of 1.2950. The cross is likely to made a double top at 1.3250 that is the previous week's high. In case the price breaches above 1.3250 the 20Dsma, the next strong resistance is seen at 1.3315. The cross has been making lower tops and lower highs in the weekly and daily charts. At yesterday's session, BOC' Poloz made a speech before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance in Ontario. He mainly concentrated on lower oil prices. He said, "Oil prices are an important component of Canada's terms of trade and one of the key drivers of movements in the Canadian dollar. Now, the fall in oil prices has set in motion complex dynamics, including sectorial and regional adjustments, which will take the time to work their way through the economy. The negative effects of lower oil prices hit some sectors of the economy right away."
Intraday view: The three-week consolidation makes the price moving above the hourly moving averages. For an intraday view, we recommend buying above 1.3225 with small targets at 1.3240, 1.3250, 1.3300, and 1.3320 20Dsma. On the downside, we recommend selling below 1.3180 with targets at 1.3145, 1.3130, 1.3100, 1.3080 and 1.3060. Eventually, the pair is likely to go further downside towards 1.2950.
