Fundamental outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate in a higher range as markets wait the release of the U.S. flash GDP for Q1 (forecast +1.0%) at 12:30 GMT and the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to stay pat on the interest rates but market participants will be looking closely at its statement for any fresh clues about when it will begin raising rates, and how rapidly it may proceed with tightening once it is started. Today, liquidity is thin in Asia as financial markets in Japan are shut for a public holiday. USD/JPY is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.10 versus 96.85 early Tuesday) on a surprise drop in the U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index to 95.2 in April from 101.4 in March (versus forecast for rise to 102.5). USD/JPY is also weighed by the yen buy orders from Japan's exporters. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.003% versus 1.924% late Monday), buying of the yen crosses amid improved risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 5.41% to 12.41; S&P 500 closed up 0.28% at 2,114.76 overnight), the yen sell orders from the Japanese importers and the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.45. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 119.75. The pivot point stands at 118.75. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 119.45 and the second target at 119.75.
Resistance levels:
119.45
119.75
120.10
Support levels:
118.50
118.30
117.75
