TThe recent rise in oil prices put pressure on the cross. The cross has been rejected at 1.3765 couple of times. The support is found between 1.3400 and 1.3385. In the four hour chart, higher lows and higher highs formation still persist. The recent Greece saga adds more pressure on the euro.
The cross has been falling for 4 consecutive months. In case the cross fails to hold at 1.3385, it can re-test a low of 1.3024 made in April and even lower to 1.2950 and finally to 1.2840, a low made in January 2013, and 80.0 the fib level entire rise from 1.2122 to 1.5238. On the bullish front, bulls must close above 1.3765 to get back on track. As of now, the trading pattern is framed between 1.3385 and 1.3765. Any breakout is likely to provide further room to trade. Today is a data-heavy day on euro. French, Italian, and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm payroll q/q and French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are due today. Besides, UD retail and core retail sales data are expected today. We expect German GDP to be in the expansion side and Italy and France will be on stagnant. Previously, we recommended risky buy between 1.3500 and 1.3400 with sl 1.3385. We still have the same view. A daily close above 1.3765 will add big spikes to the system with targets at 1.3810, 1.4000, and 1.4080. The current minor uptrend is expected to be cancelled in case the price breaks below 1.3385. On the bullish front, two levels arrest the current minor rally 1.3765 200Wsma and 1.3780 50Msma. We expect 400pips on the higher side in case it is taken out on a closing basis.
Intraday support is found at 1.3450 100ema 1.3425, previous swing 1.3400 and the last hope remains at 1.3385 100Dsma. The cross touched the 1.3452 trading at 1.3474 within the Asian session.
Trade: positional buying between 1.3455 and 1.3410 with sl 1.3385 with targets at 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3600, 1.3640, and 1.3680.
