The UK industrial and manufacturing production beats the expectations. Total industrial production output is estimated to have increased by 0.1% between Q4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and Q1 (Jan to Mar) 2015. Manufacturing, the largest component of production, is also estimated to have increased by 0.1% between these periods. Manufacturing output increased by 0.4% between February 2015 and March 2015. In 3 months to March 2015, production and manufacturing were 10.2% and 4.8% respectively below their printings for the pre-downturn GDP peak in Q1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.
Upcoming data: The UK macro calendar offered a data-heavy day .The major economic data, such as BOE governor Carney's speech, inflation report, and Claimant count change, due today. Besides, the US will publish retail and core retail data on Wednesday. The Committee's latest inflation rate and output projections will appear in the Inflation Report to be published at 10.30 a.m. within today's session.
Technical view: The cable moved above a 5-month high. A couple of facts have been supporting the pound in moving higher. The cable made a high at 1.5711 and closed at 1.5671. Today at the Asian session, the pound is trading at 1.5667 compared to 1.5671 Tuesday's closing against USD. In the four-hour chart, higher highs and higher lows formation still exists. The cable made a triple top at 1.5711 in the four-hour chart. Safe buying will trigger only above the triple top. We have been recommending buying above 1.5000. We expected 1.5650 not 1.5700+. We recommend fresh buying above 1.5715 (like 1.5830, 1.5860, 1.5900, and finally 1.5975). At yesterday's session, the cable managed to close above 200Dsma. In the daily chart, the cable managed to close all the moving averages at all-time intervals.
Intraday view: The cable made a triple top at 1.5711, fresh buying is recommended above 1.5715 and safe buying above 1.5730. At the Asian session, the cable found support at 1.5660 and resistance is seen at 1.5700 and 1.5711. Ahead of major data we expect wild moves today. The price moved 600 odd pips without correction. Today's inflation forecast is likely to drive the pair. Strong support is found at 1.5550. We expect profit booking at 1.5730 or 1.5800/1.5830 and re-test towards 1.5560 today. We expect a near-term top to be placed in this week. In the four-hour chart, negative divergence remains in play. We expect the cable to test the levels of 1.5550/1.5500.
Key support : 200Dsma 1.5630 200Dema 1.5540.
For an intraday view, we recommend selling below 1.5630 with targets at 1.5600 and 1.5560. On the bullish front, safe buying is above 1.5730 with targets at 1.5800 and 1.5830.
To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com
