Fundamental outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by softer dollar sentiment and lower US Treasury yields (2-year at 0.576% versus 0.631% late Thursday) after slightly-fewer-than-expected 223,000 increase in the US non-farm payrolls in April (versus forecast +228,000) and less-than-expected 0.1% on-month rise in the US average hourly earnings in April (versus forecast +0.2%), while the March payrolls increase was cut to just +85,000 from previously reported 126,000. USD/JPY is also weighed by the weaker-than-expected 0.1% rise in the US March wholesale inventories (versus forecast +0.4%) and Japan export sales. But USD/JP Y losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers, ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy, and reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen amid positive risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 15.0% to 12.86, S&P 500 closed up 1.35% at 2,116.1 Friday) as the US April jobs data reassured investors that the Federal Reserve will remain patient in raising interest rates, while China's central bank cut interest rates by 0.25% on Sunday--its third decrease since November.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics is neutral.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.25 and the second target at 120.50. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.40. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 119. The pivot point is at 119.60.
Resistance levels:
120.25
120.50
120.80
Support levels:
119.40
119
118.75
