Fundamental Overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range. It is undermined by the weaker dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 93.29 versus 93.41 early Friday) after a worse-than-expected drop in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 88.6 in May from 95.9 in April (versus forecast 95.5) and bigger-than-expected 0.3% on-month drop in the US April industrial production (versus forecast -0.1% ), lower-than-expected capacity utilization of 78.2% (versus forecast 78.3%) and weaker-than-expected rise in the Empire State's business conditions index to 3.09 in May from -1.19 in April (versus forecast 5.0). USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower US treasury yields (10-year at 2.141% versus 2.239% late Thursday) and Japan export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Technical comment:
The daily chart is negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are in bearish mode, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 119.95 and the second target at 120.15. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 119.05 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.75. The pivot point is at 119.30.
Resistance levels:
119.95
120.15
120.50
Support levels:
119.05
118.75
118.50
