Global macro overview for 02/07/2015 08:10 CET - Non-Farm Payrolls Data
Improving numbers from the labor market is a good sign for the good US economy, and the Fed is looking for another good number today to validate the first rate hike as early as in September 2015. Analysts expect the NFP number to be over 200 000 again ranging between 220,000– 235,000. Please remember the last reading had beat the expectations adding 60 000 more jobs than experts had expected (280,000 added vs forecast of 220,00). If the number is really solid, even two rate hikes could take place this year, just as mentioned Fed Governor Jerome Powell mentioned last month.
Important events to watch (GMT +2):
14:30 USA Unemployment Rate
14:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Change
14:30 USA Change in Private Payrolls
14:30 USA Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings
14:30 USA Participation rate
14:30 USA Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
14:30 USA Unemployment Claims
14:30 USA Continuing Claims
16:00 USA Factory Orders
Possible market reaction to stronger than expected NFP number:
The stronger-than-expected number ( above 235 000) might result in a sharp decline of EUR/USD towards the support at the level of 1.0954, due to three main reasons:
- market response to better news is to buy the US dollar
- market might start to price in the possibility of a rate hike
- market might start to fly to safe heaven procedure ahead of the Greece's referendum on Sunday with the uncertain outcome
