Global macro overview for 29/07/2015:
The highly anticipated FOMC meeting minutes and rate decision is the most important event of the day. The Fed is highly unlikely to rise the short-term interest rates. But reading the FOMC statement might give traders some clues about further policy outlook. Those are the most important things to pay attention to:
- rates should stay on hold - it is highly unlikely for Fed to rise the interest rates for the first time since 2006, but policy makers might give hints whether this move is approaching by updating its view of the economy and central bank inflation targets
- job market assessment- the recent data from US job market turned out to be better than expected, so any upbeat statement that the unemployment numbers are getting close to the policy makers assessment might signal the rate hike is on table soon
- inflation assessment - the inflation annual target for FED is 2% and there is no rate hike possible without meeting this target number
- economic growth assessment - strong consumer and household spending should be in focus for policy makers if they want to consider to raise the interest rates, but the recent weak reading on retail sales might temporary limit any enthusiastic outlook for this part of the economic data, hence: no rate hike
- 10-0 streak breakout - the recent voting on FOMC meetings were unanimous and approved by 10 to 0 vote, but on the last meeting one of the policy makers was ready to raise the rates. Please watch for any 10-0 pattern breakout on the upcoming meeting
The market is trading slowly ahead of the meeting, with EUR/USD testing from the upside the recently broken golden trendline at the level of 1.1061.
