Gold wave analysis for January 12, 2016

The gold price is either in a wave 4 correction phase or has made an important top and is starting a new decline towards new lows at $1,000. The decisive price level is $1,080.

The gold price is still above the Ichimoku cloud and the pullback has reached the kijun-sen support (yellow line). This level is also the 38% Fibonacci retracement support. This is a typical 4th wave correction. If the bullish scenario is true, then we should expect one more new final high to complete wave 5 up. However, if we pull back lower and price overlaps wave's 1 high at $1,080, then the bullish scenario will be postponed.

Red lines - bullish wedge

Yellow line - long-term resistance

The weekly chart remains the same. The price has much more upside potential than downside. The price increase has stopped right at the weekly kijun-sen resistance. The long-term trend remains bearish as the price remains below the Ichimoku cloud. However, I believe, there are more chances of a push towards the cloud.

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