Global macro overview for 01/04/2016:
The UK consumer confidence declined to the lowest level in more than a year amid fears that Britain might vote to exit the European Union in June 2016. GfK consumer confidence index was at zero in March. Economists say the government's decision to hold the EU referendum is another domestic threat, which is likely to undermine confidence in the run-up to the vote on June 23. Even The Bank of England said earlier that after putting the Brexit at the top of the current domestic problems the prospects for financial stability have worsened. In conclusion, if British voters decide to leave the EU, Britain is likely to suffer a hit to growth, at least in the short term.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in 4H time frame. The market has not managed yet to break out above the important technical resistance at the level of 1.4515 and currently is trading below the dashed purple trend line. Nevertheless, the corrective retracement from the level of 1.4457 is rather shallow. As long as the level of 1.4324 is not clearly violated bulls might still have another rally upwards to test the resistance again.
