Global macro overview for 15/04/2016:
The Bank of England decided yesterday to keep the benchmark rate at the level of 0.5% and asset purchase facility at 375bln. Moreover, the official bank rate votes were nine to zero (0-9) in favor of no change in interest rates. It is not hard to conclude from the monetary policy summary that the BoE acknowledged that the economy has lost some momentum. Growth for Q1 is expected at the level of 0.4% which is below the fourth quarter's average of 0.5%. Moreover, the BoE suggests that the uncertainty about the referendum may already be taking an economic impact. In conclusion, the long-anticipated interest rate hike is currently off the table as the greater domestic risks are putting pressure on the BoE's monetary policy.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. We can see a sharp decline after a false breakout above the technical resistance at the level of 1.4324, but still, the golden trend line hasn't been violated yet. Nevertheless, it looks like the bears are in control over this market and it will be confirmed with the daily candle close below the golden trend line (below 1.4000 levels).
