Global macro overview for 18/04/2016:
During the recent meeting in Doha, OPEC and non-OPEC countries failed to agree on an output freeze. The growing tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran and the inability of the other oil producers to agree on a loose commitment to freeze output for a short period of time was the main reason for the talks collapse. In conclusion, the oil was sold heavily after the news and currently there is no real reason for it not to fall even further as Iran strongly claims to return to the pre-sanctions levels. Declining crude oil production in the USA might help support the prices to some extent. The next OPEC meeting is in June.
Let's now take a look at the crude oil technical picture in the 4H time frame. We can see the weekend gap marked as yellow triangle and the broken golden trend line. Moreover the market is trading below the 21,50 and 100 moving averages, so it looks like bears are in control over this market. Any break below the level of 37.41 (H4 candle low) will support this view especially if there will be no intention to fill the gap.
