USD/JPY is expected to hit the target at 111.60 while remaining below the key resistance at 112.65. Overnight, US stocks ended slightly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining 0.2% to 17685, the S&P 500 dropping 0.2% to 2059, and the Nasdaq Composite being broadly flat at 4869.
Meanwhile, the US government reported that initial jobless claims rose to 276K in the week ended March 26 (vs 265K expected) from 265K in the previous week.
Nymex crude oil edged up 2 cents to $38.34 a barrel, gold rose 0.6% to $1232 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.784% from 1.830% in the previous session.
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index lost another 0.2% to 86.56 as EUR/USD gained 0.4% to 1.1378, USD/CHF fell 0.4% to 0.9611. At the same time, USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 112.56, GBP/USD edged down 0.1% to 1.4358, USD/CAD increased 0.3% to 1.3004, and NZD/USD was down 0.2% to 0.6903.
This morning the Bank of Japan reported that the Large-Manufacturer Tankan fell to 6 in Q1 (vs 8 expected) from 12 in the previous quarter. Tonight the US government will release the closely watched March jobs report. The pair has just broken below the lower Bollinger band as those bands are widening, indicating an acceleration to the downside. The intraday (30-minute chart) relative strength index is badly directed below the neutrality level of 50. The first downside target at 111.60 is in sight.
Trading Recommendation:
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.60. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 111.20. The pivot point stands at 112.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 113.20 and the second target at 113.45.
Resistance levels: 113.20, 113.45, 113.80
Support levels: 111.60, 111.20, 110.85
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