Global macro overview for 18/05/2016:
The crude oil Inventories data is scheduled for the release today at 02:30pm GMT. The market participants expect another draw down in stockpiles (-3,500k vs. -3,410k prior) and the price of crude remains at a 6-month high ($48.11 at the time of writing). The main factor that influenced the recent boost in crude oil prices is the Canadian oil production disruption, as a massive wildfire in northern Alberta forced the evacuation of 90,000 people. Nevertheless, oil companies restarted oil production in the region of the wildfire, but on the limited basis. That is why oil inventories are being used harder than before.
Let's now take a look at the technical picture of Crude Oil in the H4 time frame and see how high the current rally can go. We can clearly see the recent breakout higher from the congestion area with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Moreover, the price is still trading above the 21,50 and 100 moving average, so this is a clear bull trend ongoing. The next resistance for bulls is at the level of 51.00, where the daily supply zone might put a lid on the rally.
