Global macro analysis for 27/07/2016:
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the main event of the day, scheduled for release at 06:00 pm GMT. Market participants are not expecting any change in interest rates, so they should stay at the level of 0.50%. The CME Group FedWatch tool implied probability of a rate hike to 0.75% is at the level of 2.4% only (at the time of writing), so no change is being expected here as well. However, this week's FOMC meeting is facing increased importance due the uptick in US economic data since June's Non-Farm Payroll announcement. Due to this upbeat NFP figures, the Fed has some scope for being hawkish and might signal another rate hike later this year.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the daily time frame. The bulls have managed to retrace 61% of the previous swing down, and now the market is at the key level. Any breakout above 97.57 will open the road towards the next target at the level of 98.59. Please notice that this scenario is being supported by the fact that the price trades above the 55-,100-, and 200-DMA.
