USD/JPY is expected to trade in a higher range as bias remains bullish. The pair broke above the upper boundary of a bearish channel and surged up to 103.50 yesterday before entering consolidation. Currently, it is trading around the lower Bollinger band, and the intraday relative strength index (30-minute chart) crossed below the neutrality level of 50, suggesting a continuation of the consolidation. However, as long as the level of 102.85 holds as the key support, the intraday outlook remains bullish and the pair is expected to resume its rise to 104.30.
Market Commentary :
On Monday, the US stock indices rallied further, boosted by financial and technology shares. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to mark a new record-high close of 2,137. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4% to 18,226, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.6% to 4,988, the highest closing level year to date.
European stocks kept strengthening, with the Stoxx Europe 600 increasing another 1.6%.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield settled at 1.434%, up from the record low of 1.366% on Friday. Gold gave up 0.9% to $1,355 an ounce, and silver was broadly flat at $20.26 an ounce (day-high at $20.67). And Nymex crude oil declined 1.4% to $44.76.
On the forex front, the US dollar surged against the Japanese yen as Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised a fresh round of fiscal stimulus after winning the weekend's upper-house elections. USD/JPY rose 2.3% to 102.79, the biggest one-day gain since October 2014. At the same time the Nikkei 225 Index soared 4.0%.
The British pound swung to gains from the earlier losses after Theresa May was confirmed as the next Conservative Party leader and prime minister of the UK. GBP/USD increased 0.3% to 1.2993 (one-day low at 1.2849).
EUR/USD edged up to 1.1056 from 1.1052 a day earlier. As a result, the ICE US Dollar Index climbed 0.3% to 96.56, the highest closing level in 4 months.
Recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 104.30 and the second one, at 104.70. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.25 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 101.85. The pivot point is at 102.85.
Resistance levels: 104.30, 104.70, 105.30
Support levels: 102.25, 101.85, 101.35
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