Global macro overview for 01/08/2016:
Two of the Fed members had been actively commenting the recent US economic situation in the mass media during this weekend, so let's see what is their current point of view on this matter. The Dallas Fed President Kaplan said in Bloomberg Tv, that rate hike "is very much on the table" if data supports the economic outlook. Moreover, he mentioned that 2016 GDP would be just under 2%, and Brexit would have a marginal negative impact on US economic growth. Another FOMC member, Mr Dudley, has a little more pessimistic point of view. He believes the Fed should be cautious in raising rates, so the flatter path is more appropriate now. Moreover, the policymaker added that the US economy would grow steadily as it was close to the full employment levels. In conclusion, we have two different points of view regarding the interest rate hike, with Kaplan more hawkish and Dudley more dovish. Both of them are data dependant just as all Fed policy members currently are, so the economic figures release will be the key event that will shape the further Fed stance towards the interest rate change.
Now, let's take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the daily time frame. Since the low at the level of 91.92 has been reached, the market is still trying to make the sequence of higher highs and higher lows, so the longer term trend can change to bullish. Currently, the key level for bulls is at 92.03, and any violation of this level will invalidate this scenario. The next support is seen at 95.32 and the next resistance lies at 96.31.
