Global macro overview for 30/09/2016:
Interesting set of data from the USA is scheduled for release today at 12:30 pm GMT: Personal Spending and Personal Income. Personal income growth is expected to have been lower in August, because an increase of only 0.2% is expected (0.4% was in July). Personal Spending is anticipated to be lower than a month ago as well, but the increase should be at the level of 0.2% after 0.3% rise in July. The market participants expectations for today's data release are low, because the last NFP report showed average hourly wages rising 2.4% from year ago, which was a five-month low. Besides, the August retail sales were not great either. In conclusion, the December hike probabilities will rather not move higher based on today's numbers. The futures-implied expected probability of Fed hiking in December is now 56%.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the daily time frame. The market is trading very close to the golden trend line dynamic support at the level of 95.50 and it is still trading sideways waiting for the trigger to break out either to the upside or to the downside. The next key support in this sideways market is at the level of 95.05 and the next resistance lies at the level of 96.27.
