USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 102.80. The pair is trading below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50. Nevertheless, a support base at 102.80 (Aug 31 bottom) has been formed, so the downside potential should be limited by this level. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. On Thursday, U.S. stocks were little changed at close as losses in energy shares caused by slumping oil prices were offset by gains in technology sectors.
On the economic data front, initial jobless claims improved slightly to 263k in week ended August 27th (estimated 265k) from 261k in the previous week. Continuing claims increased to 2.16M in week ended August 20th (forecasted 2.15M) compared to 2.15M in prior week. In other news, Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI logged its lowest reading since June 2016 to 52 in August in a final estimation (estimated 51.1) from 52.1 in a preliminary estimate and 52.9 in July. ISM manufacturing in August fell to 49.4 (forecasted 52) compared with 52.6 in the previous month.
As long as 102.80 is not broken, look for a technical rebound toward 103.65. A break above this level would open the way to further upside toward the next resistance at 103.95.
Trading Recommendation:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 103.65 and the second one at 103.95. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 102.40 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 102.10. The pivot point is at 102.80.
Resistance levels: 103.65, 103.95, 104.50
Support levels: 102.40, 102.10, 101.65
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com