Global macro overview for 08/11/2016:
The UK Industrial Production data were released this morning ant they were worse than expected. Last month a decrease in industrial production reached the level of -0.4% on a monthly basis, but on a yearly basis it stayed above zero at the level of 0.7%. For this month, market participants expected a rebound of 0.1% m/m and 0.8% y/y, but on the monthly basis there was no change from -0.4% and the yearly industrial production decreased to 0.3% only. Moreover, last month the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimated third-quarter GDP growth at 0.4%, down from 0.7% in Q2. NIESR will publish a new GDP estimate today at 03:00pm GMT and it looks like the GDP estimate will be as well worse than last month. In conclusion, amid the retail sales increase, the industrial production is still a drag in post-Brexit UK economy and it might get worse especially if the Article 50 is fully implemented by the current government.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the 4H time frame. After the golden trend line breakout and test from below, the market is slowly trading in a horizontal channel between the levels of 1.2378 - 1.2437. Market participants are waiting for the presidential election results, that will affect this pair as well. The next important support is seen at the level of 1.2333 and the next important resistnace is seen at the level of 1.2478.
