Global macro overview for 29/11/2016:
The main event for the day is the US GDP Second Release at 01:30pm GMT and Consumer Confidence Index at 03:00pm GMT. The market participants are expecting a slight uptick in GDP for the third quarter from 2.9% to 3.0% (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in the preliminary estimate. Today's release is on track to add a bit more edge to the trend as the broad trend for the world's largest economy has been firming up lately. The mood of the consumer sector seems to improve as global investors are expecting the increase from 98.6 points in October to 101.3 points in November. The possible reason behind this optimism is the initial reaction of consumers to Trump's victory. Moreover, strong data on retail spending supports a brighter mood. Real (inflation-adjusted) sales increased 2.6% in the year through October – the biggest increase since February. In conclusion, if today's data matches or beats the expectations, the US dollar rally should continue higher.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the 4H time frame. The failure to break out the technical resistance at the level of 1.0665 resulted in a further decline towards the local low at the level of 1.0515. If data beats the expectations, this level should be tested or broken shortly.
