Global macro overview for 27/12/2016:
The spike in gold overnight might be attributed to the Bundesbank (BUBA) news. The Reuters news agency claims that Bundesbank head Jens Weidemann brings back to Germany more gold than planned. It looks like BUBA moves toward hoarding half of the world's second-largest reserve at home (currently they have around 3,381 tons of gold as reserves). According to German newspaper Bild, around 1,600 tons of Germany's gold reserves are now in the country, and that figure is to rise to 1,700 tons by 2020. In conclusion, not only China is stocking up gold as usual, but now another major player joined the game. If this demand level is sustained, we might see even higher prices of gold during next years.
Let us now take a look at the gold technical picture on the daily time frame. The market has almost retraced 78% of the previous swing up (78% Fibo is at the level of 1116.56) and the price starts to diverge from the momentum oscillator. Any breakout above 1,150 will be considered as bullish (temporary), but a sustained breakout above 1,200 is a trend change. The next support is seen at the level of 1,112.78 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 1,150.00.
