Global macro overview for 19/01/2017:
The Australian jobs market data beaten market expectations. The Unemployment Rate increased to 5.8% in December from 5.7% a month ago and the Employment Change has decreased to 13.5k from 37.1k a month ago (10.1k expected). The bigger picture is that the labour market still looks fragile as the level of employment is only 0.8% higher than a year ago. The number of full-time jobs is 0.4% lower than a year earlier while the number of part-time jobs is 3.4% higher. The trend towards more part-time jobs is currently the biggest problem with the employment growth and it needs to change if wages and household income growth is to improve from current modest rates. In conclusion, despite the positive data, there has clearly been a slowdown of momentum in the labour market. This situation might enable the RBA to donwgrade 2016/17 growth forecasts at its February 7 meeting. Besides, it can eventually result in a final cut from the RBA in the third quarter of 2017.
Let's now take a look at AUD/USD technical picture in the daily time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the 61%fibo at the level of 0.7541, but they have met the bears at this level, who managed to push the price lower towards the moving average support around the level of 0.7500. Currently, this bearish engulfing pattern in the daily time frame hasn't been confirmed yet. However, if the market breaks out below the level of 0.7500 again, then the price is likely to head for support at the 0.7375 level.
