Global macro overview for 27/01/2017:
The Preliminary GDP and Durable Goods Orders data from the US are the key macroeconomic data to keep an eye on today. The market participants expect GDP to decrease from 3.5% to 2.1% for the last quarter. On the other hand, the Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise from -4.6% to 2.7% on a month-to-month basis. The key sub-index to watch here is manufacturer's durable goods orders as they used to trend higher during the earlier periods of economic expansion. The lack of investment has kept the level of orders unchanged for almost four years now and the recent promises made by president Trump might be quite important for this part of the economy. The GDP increase at the level of 2.1% seems robust, but is still sluggish. This is one of the reasons why, despite the low unemployment and elevated level of consumer spending and overall sentiment, the growth has been limited. The main concern here is the wage growth. So, if the Trump's large-scale infrastructure investment plans will be approved by Congress, then wages might pick up even more.
In conclusion, everything is still all about US President Donald Trump and his policies, so will we see the upbeat reading for GDP and Durable Goods Orders? We will find out today at 01:30 pm GMT.
Let's now take a look at US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had broken below the important technical support at the level of 100.53, but the sequence of the higher lows is still valid. The price is trading inside of the golden channel, just at the level of technical resistance at 100.70. If bulls want to take the control back from bears, the price must break out above the level of 100.70 and then head towards the next technical resistance at the level of 101.73.
