Global macro overview for 14/02/2017:
The Consumer Price Index and Producer and Import prices data from Switzerland were published this morning and they were slightly better than expected. The CPI increased from -0.1% to 0.0% on a month-to-month basis. There was a year-on-year increase of 0.3% from 0.0% previously which was in line with consensus forecasts. This means the inflation rate moved into positive territory for the first time since the third quarter of 2014.Domestic prices rose 0.2% over the year while import prices rose 0.7% despite a monthly decline in prices. The biggest decline in prices was reported for clothing and shoes due to the seasonal sales. The upward pressure in the prices was noticed in the prices of the hotel bookings with fuel and heating-oil costs also registering a monthly increase. In conclusion, not a huge change in the economy and inflation, but there might be some important psychological impact of the fact that the inflation rate is no longer negative anymore.
Let's now take a look at the USD/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price is currently trading just at the technical resistance at the level of 1.0058 and this seems to be the key level for any further move upward. If the bulls will fail to rally here, then the odds are high for the price to get back to the trading range and test the 61%Fibo at the level of 0.9850 once again.
