Trading plan for 13/02/2017:
At the beginning of the trading week, there will be a few economic releases during the European and American trading session, so let's take a look at the major fundamental events during this week. This week, the US, Britain and China publish reports on inflation. In turn, Janet Yellen, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, will testify before Congress for the first time since the Donald Trump entered the White House.
Monday, February 13
Japan will publish a preliminary reading of economic growth in the fourth quarter.
Let's take a look at the EUR/JPY technical picture to see how news is going to affect the market. The most important level now is the resistance at the level of 121.32 and any break out higher will open the road to the level of 122.51. Any failure here will make the price to go back to the sidelines mode, where the next support is seen at the level of 120.22.
Tuesday, February 14
China will publish data on consumer sentiment and inflation in producer prices.
Germany will publish preliminary reading of economic growth for the fourth quarter and the euro zone will publish a revised reading of economic growth in the fourth quarter.
ZEW institute will publish a report on German economic sentiment.
United Kingdom publishes a report on consumer price inflation.
US will publish data on producer price inflation.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will speak at an event in Houston.
The Consumer Price Index data from the United Kingdom might cause a lot of volatility in the GBP/USD pair, so it is worth to analyze the technical picture at the higher time frame, like 4H. The price is trading below the golden trendline, but it looks like the bulls want to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2581. If this level is violated after the news, then the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2729.
Wednesday, February 15
The United Kingdom will publish a report on employment.
USA will publish a series of reports, among other things, inflation, retail sales, industrial production and factory activity in the region of New York.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.
For this day the Dollar Index will be the most affected pair, especially during the Yellen testify. The most important level is the technical resistance at the level of 101.02 and any hawkish statements from Yellen might help the price to break out above this level. Only a sustained break out below the level of 100.06 would change the bullish bias before the Yellen Wednesday's testimony.
Thursday, February 16
Australia will release the latest employment report.
The European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its last meeting.
USA will publish reports on building permits, commenced construction of houses, the initial administrations of unemployment and factory activity in the Philadelphia region.
This biggest volatility might be created during the ECB Minutes release and the most affected forex pair will be EUR/USD, so let's take a look at the daily technical picture of this pair. The current market conditions are overbounght and the price is trading at the daily support at the level of 1.0619. Any daily close below that level would open the road towards the next techncial support at the level of 1.0451.
Friday, February 17
New Zealand will publish a report on retail sales.
United Kingdom also publishes a report on retail sales.
Canada closes week a report on purchases of foreign bonds.
Market snapshot - Cooper at multi-year highs.
Copper prices reached the highest level since May 2015 exceeding the barrier of $ 6,000 per ton. The pretext to break new peaks were the news on the beginning of a long time the announced strike of miners in Chile. At the beginning of the London session, the price of the red metal soared by 4.1%, which was way above the local highs from November and January. It is worth to mention, that strikes an ordinary thing in this industry and in the absence of an appropriate sentiment in the market rarely can create a significant and long-lasting impact on commodity prices.
Let's not take a look at the Copper futures market technical picture at the H1 time frame. After the gap up towards the level of 2.814 the bears are trying to fill the gap back. The market conditions are overbought at this time frame, so the corrective move is expected now. This is why a sell orders are preferred for intraday trading, with SL above the level of 2.814. The next support is seen at the level of 2.737 (good TP level) and a daily close below this level might suggest that some kind of topping formation is in progress.
