Trading plan for 01/03/2017:
On Wednesday 1st of March 2017, there is plenty of news released during the European and American trading session and the global investors will pay attention to PMI Manufacturing data from the Eurozone, the Unemployment Rate data from Germany, PMI Manufacturing from the U.K., ISM Manufacturing PMI from the U.S. and the Overnight Rate decision from the Bank of Canada.
EUR/USD analysis for 01/03/2017:
This pair will be under the influence of the various data release all day, so it might get complicated to prepare the accurate analysis due to the increased volatility. Nevertheless, the PMI Manufacturing data from Eurozone that are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and the Unemployment Rate from Germany, that is scheduled for release at 08:55 am GMT will influence the EUR/USD price the most during the European session. Generally speaking, the market participants are expecting another set of a solid data from the Eurozone. The PMI Manufacturing is expected at the level of 55.50, just as a month ago, and the Unemployment Rate is expected at the level of 5.9%, just as a month ago. Any data that will be better than this numbers will be in favor of the Euro, so the EUR/USD pair should bounce higher.
Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. After the drop from the level of 1.0630, the market is trading in the oversold conditions and the long wick at the last hourly candle might suggest more upside pressure rising. The most important intraday resistance at the level of 1.0550 must be violated if bulls want the price to rally higher towards the level of 1.0589. In a case of a failure at the level, the market will likely continue the drop towards the next intraday support at the level of 1.0519 and 1.493.
GBP/USD analysis for 01/03/2017:
Another PMI Manufacturing data will be released at 09:30 am GMT from the U.K. and the market is not expecting any downside surprises as the median of market analysts expects a 0.2 point deterioration from the last months 55.9 points. This sentiment benchmark is on track to hold near a three-year high if today's results will deliver. The economic growth continues to defy previous forecasts of a post-Brexit slowdown.
Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The recent triangle pattern break out to the downside has stopped at the technical support at the level of 1.2347 and now the market is testing the level of 1.2381. Any better than expected data might extend the corrective rally, so the price might break out above the 1.2381 resistance and head towards the level of 1.2478. On the other hand, if the PMI data will disappoint, then the break out below the 1.2347 support is almost certain and the price will target the level of 1.2251 next.
USD/CAD analysis for 01/03/2017:
The Overnight Rate decision is scheduled for release at 03:00 pm GMT and the market participants do not expect any surprises from Bank of Canada this month: the interest rate should stay unchanged at the level of 0.50%. Much more interesting might be the lecture of the BoC rate statement. The overall tone of the statement should remain dovish to neutral, so any mentions of a steady pace rate hikes ( to catch up with FED) will be considered very hawkish. In that case, the Canadian Dollar should appreciate as the market will digest the news.
Let's take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the impressive rally yesterday the market is now trading just at the level of technical resistance at the level of 1.3336, but the most important resistance is still at the level of 1.3388. In a case of a dovish or neutral statement, the price should continue to rally higher towards the 1.3388 level. But in a case of unexpected hawkish tone, the price might aggressively reverse towards the level of 1.3282 or even lower towards the level of 1.3210.
GOLD analysis for 01/03/2017:
The ISM Manufacturing data from the U.S. are scheduled for release at 03:00 pm GMT and are expected to stay unchanged at the level of 56.1. The main reason behind this are the recent data found in Dallas Fed index. It clearly shows that Texas factory output increased for the eighth consecutive month in January as the recession in energy-related companies faded. This trend is expected to continue on the national scale as well.
The yellow metal will be greatly influenced by the ISM data, especially is the data beat the expectations and print a higher number than anticipated. In that case, the Gold corrective move might extend lower towards the level of 1225. Currently, the price is trading at the technical support at the level of 1.244, just around the golden trend line dynamic support as well. If it breaks lower, then the level of 1225 might be reached easily.
