Trading plan for 02/03/2017:
On Thursday 2nd of March 2017, there is plenty of news released during the European and American trading sessions and the global investors will pay attention to Construction PMI data from the United Kingdom, Unemployment Rate and Consumer Price Index from Eurozone, Gross Domestic Product from Canada, and Unemployment Claims from the United States.
GBP/USD analysis for 02/03/2017:
The Construction PMI data are scheduled for release at 09:30 am GMT today and the market participants are expecting no change from the last month level of 52.2 points. Please notice, that yesterday's manufacturing PMI disappointed the markets, so today's data might not be as good as anticipated. The highest level of manufacturing was established last month at the level of 54.5, so it might be the time for some deterioration.
Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had broken below the intraday support at the level of 1.2345 and now is heading towards the support at the level of 1.2251 to test it again. The market conditions are oversold and the price might start to consolidate around the support ahead of the data. If data will beat the expectation then the corrective bounce is expected up to the level of 1.2345. On the other hand, the sell-off might continue lower towards the level of 1.1985.
EUR/USD analysis for 02/03/2017:
The Unemployment Rate and Consumer Price Index data will be released at 10:00 am GMT and the market participants are expecting no change from the last month levels. The unemployment rate should stay unchanged at the level of 9.6% in the Eurozone and the CPI should stay unchanged as well at the level of 1.8% on a year-to-year basis. The jobless rate has come down modestly in recent months, but still not enough to convince the European Central Bank to reset the monetary policy. However, it might start to change if today's inflation reading will beat the forecast as the ECB inflation projection for 2017 are at the level of 2.0%.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The price is trading in slightly overbought conditions, so if the CPI will be better than expected, then the price will rally higher towards the next intraday resistance at the level of 1.0571. Otherwise, the market will slowly move to the next important support at the level of 1.0493.
USD/CAD analysis for 02/03/2017:
The GDP data from Canada are scheduled for release at 01:30 pm GMT. Since 2010 the Canadian GDP is oscillating around the +0.6% and -0.5%, depending on the quarter. That is why the expected numbers are not very impressive as the Canadian economy is regaining the momentum rather slowly.
Let's take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just below the important technical resistance at the level of 1.3388 and in a case of better than expected data this level might not be violated as the price will deteriorate further in a corrective fashion. On the other hand, if the data will be worse than expected, then this resistance will be broken and the price will rally towards the next resistance at the level of 1.3595.
USD/JPY analysis for 02/03/2017:
The most influence on this pair will have Initial Jobless Claims data release from the U.S. today at 01:30 pm GMT. The market participants expect virtually no change in the number of unemployed people (244k versus 245k expected) as the continuing strength of the US job market is fueling the economic optimism. Moreover, the initial jobless claims are leading indicator for non-farm payrolls, so as long as claims remain in the mid-200k range, the prospects look encouraging for a healthy rise in the pace of jobs creation.
Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H1 time frame. The bulls have managed to push the price higher towards the 78%Fibo at the level of 114.24, but growing bearish divergence and oversold market conditions are suggesting a corrective movement ahead. The odds for this correction will rise if the data will be worse than expected. Then, the technical support at the level of 113.78 might be tested or in a case of a larger miss, the next support at the level of 113.46 might be tested as well.
