Trading plan for 06/03/2017:
At the beginning of the new week, let's take a look back to review last week's important macro events:
- Interest rate hike anticipated at March FOMC meeting;
- Global growth uptick continues;
- Major stock indices closed at record highs;
- The UK House of Lords seeks Brexit bill amendments.
Global equities extended gains last week, and strong global manufacturing data suggested that economic momentum continues to improve. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury note rose strongly to 2.49% from 2.32% as investors moved to price in an interest rate increase from the US Federal Reserve.
EUR/USD analysis for 06/03/2017:
The most important event of the day will be US Factory Orders released at 03:00 pm GMT. Today's data are expected to bring more good news from manufacturing sector of the economy in the US. The market participants are expecting factory orders in January rising 1.1% in the monthly comparison, which translates to an implied 3.8% year-on-year advance. If the expectations are met, then the rebound in factory orders will strengthen. This might be used by the Fed as another evidence of strong US economy and a good reason to justify the interest rate hike in March.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H1 time frame. The bulls have managed to break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0630, but the overbought trading conditions and clear bearish divergence at this time frame indicate a corrective cycle that might target the next support at the level of 1.0591.
Market snapshot - GBP/USD retreats to 61%Fibo again
The price of this pair failed to break out above the dashed channel line and retreated back to the 61%Fibo support at the level of 1.2261. The market conditions look overbought and the price might fall even lower, targeting the support at the level of 1.2251 - 12241 for a primary bounce. Any violation of the level of 1.2214 will likely extend the sell-off and then the next support is seen at the level of 1.2140 (78% Fibo support).
Market snapshot - Crude Oil falls despite growing economic optimism
Despite growing economic optimism, oil prices fell last week on increased US inventories. The price of oil is currently trading between two important levels, the technical support at the level of 52.54 and technical resistance at the level of 53.40. Any violation of one of these levels will cause a significant move, either to the upside or to the downside.
