Trading plan for 29/03/2017:
Today's trading in the Dollar is calm after yesterday's rebound, except for the Pound that is feeling nervous about the formal start of the Brexit procedure. The stock market in the USA has little change as well. The stock market in Asia is without direction today. Shanghai Composite is up 0.2%, but Nikkei loses 0.1%.
Wednesday the 29th of March will be all about Brexit, but the Crude Oil inventories and various FED policymakers speeches will definitely gain some attention from the market participants.
GBP/USD analysis for 29/03/2017:
It is not that simple to predict the possible behavior of any of the Pound pair today and the reason behind it is, of course, the start of the Brexit procedure. There are three ways of trading the Brexit even today. The first way is to sell the pound before the event in anticipation of a profit, and if you get a big profit, you can hold the position for the whole event believing that the movement will be higher for the pair GBP/USD. The other way is to wait until the market starts the initial move and buy the GBP/USD pair for a brief return, as some traders and economists do not agree that the final exit will be after 18 months. The third option is to wait a little longer, an hour or two, giving the market a breath and then follow the trend that will come out as it will likely continue through the New York and Asian sessions. It is important to remember that the GBP/USD pair may be a very violate pair after the event on the move.
Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame before the Brexit event is announced. There are two critical support and resistance zones. The resistance zone is between the levels of 1.2705 - 1.2772 and the support zone is between the levels of 1.1985 - 1.2046. There is a high possibility that both of these zones will be violated today, so cautious trading is recommended.
Crude Oil analysis for 29/03/2017:
Crude oil remains stronger with WTI's price at $48.6 in response to reports from Libya about halting supplies of oil fields in the Sahara. OPEC leaks on the possible extension of the reduction contract also help stabilize the market. The API report fell to +1.9 million barrels, but due to similar DOE forecasts, the market remained neutral. Today's news release at 02:30 pm GMT regarding the crude oil inventories (1,200k expected vs. 4,954k before) might trigger more volatility on this market.
Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H1 time frame. After a quadruple bottom, the market rallied towards the next technical resistance at the level of $48.72 and managed to violate it. Nevertheless, the current market conditions look overbought and the growing bearish divergence indicated a temporary pullback towards the level of $48.47 or $48.27. When the pullback is completed, the intraday uptrend should resume.
Market snapshot: USD/CAD Double Top in play?
The USD/CAD price is trading just below the gray rectangle resistance zone after failed second attempt to break out above it. The dashed black trend line had been tested once, so any violation of it will open the road for bears to test the next technical support at the level of 1.3302 or even 1.3275. On the other hand, break out above the resistance zone will open the road for bulls to test the recent swing highs around the level of 1.3537.
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