Trading plan for 14/04/2017:
Friday brings a thin market with limited volatility in some closed markets like Australia or New Zealand. The stock market in Asia has been weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions. Risk aversion sentiment is dominating among investors with the strongest JPY and weak AUD and NZD. Oil is trading steadily, gold is extending its gains.
On Friday 14th of April, the volatility in the foreign exchange market is heavily constrained due to the holiday break, and those markets that are working are also not interested in a significant change in the situation. Nevertheless, there are important data scheduled for release during the American trading session: Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index from the US.
EUR/USD analysis for 14/04/2017:
The Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index data are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect almost no change for them. The Retail Sales are expected at the level of 0.1%, just like a month ago and CPI is expected at the level 0.2%, unchanged from the reported month as well. If the data meet the expectations, it will mean that the inflationary pressures are currently stable in the US, so only a moderate amount of the interest rate hike should be expected.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. After the false breakout to the level of 1.0678, the market reversed and now is trading back in the range. The golden trend line seems to provide some dynamic support around the level of 1.0600. The next important support is seen at the level of 1.0569 and the next important resistance is seen at the level of 1.0705.
Market snapshot: Gold is consolidating its gains
The price of Gold has hit and broken above the 127% Fibonacci Extension at the level of $1,282 and now is trading just below the golden trend line around the level of $1,287. The market conditions look overbought, but no bearish divergence has been formed yet. In a case of a further rally, the next target is 161%Fibo at the level of $1,306.
Market snapshot: Crude Oil is in the corrective cycle
After hitting the technical resistance at the level of $53.78, the price of Crude Oil reversed towards the technical support at the level of $52.68. If the correction extends, then the next technical support will be seen at the level of $51.87. The multiple bearish divergences supports this view.
