Trading plan for 28/04/2017:
The markets are just trying to get better at the end of the week and month, so the Asian session went without emotions. After impressive gains from previous days, today the stock market is in a corrective mode. Shanghai Composite lost 0.3%, Nikkei shed 0.4%. WTI oil rebounds after making a monthly low of 47.90.
On Friday 28th of April, the event calendar is busy with various economic releases, but market participants will keep an eye on M3 Money Supply and Consumer Price Index data from the Eurozone, Preliminary GDP from the UK, GDP from Canada and Preliminary GDP from the US. Besides, there are two speeches from FED policymakers scheduled later in the global day.
EUR/USD analysis for 28/04/2017:
The eurozone's Consumer Price Index data are scheduled for release at 09:00 am GMT and market participants expect a pretty dull inflation pressure to grow from 1.5% to 1.8% on yearly basis. Moreover, the Flash Core CPI reading is expected to increase as well, from 0.7% to 1.0% on a yearly basis. At yesterday's ECB press conference, Mario Draghi said that the ECB would begin to adjust its forward guidance around June to prepare investors for the eventual tapering of the central bank's bond purchase program. However, weak inflationary pressures and weak monetary data after the non-committal central bank meeting might induce the markets to assume that the ECB is in no hurry to tighten its policy directly or indirectly.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The post-election weekend gap still hasn't been filled and the market is trading inside of a narrow trading range between the levels of 1.0854 - 1.0950. If the data is worse than expected, then the golden trend line might get violated and the market might slip down to test the technical support at the level of 1.0820. Please notice that none of the momentum indicators points to the upside, so the bias is bearish.
GBP/USD analysis for 28/04/2017:
The UK Preliminary GDP is scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and market participants expect a decline from 0.7% to 0.4% on a monthly basis. The yearly GDP should, however, improve from 1.9% to 2.2% anyway. Any number bigger than 0.4% will make the pound rally higher as this would be another clue, that a post-Brexit economy is still performing quite well, so the uncertainty regarding the further economic outlook will fade.
Let's take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The pair is still trading at elevated levels and the next technical resistance is the round number of 1.3000, which is only 70 pips away. The momentum indicator did not fell below the level of 50, which means the momentum is still strong despite the overbouth market conditions. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2905 and only a way worse than expected figure would make the market to test this level immediatly after the data release.
Market snapshot: Crudce Oil bounces back from the trend line
During the US session the Crude Oil prices managed to bounce up from the golden trend line at the level of 48.20 and now the market is trading around the 23%Fibo at the level of 49.50. Oil is keeping strong momentum, it confirms the bullish pressure. The price is likely to violate the level of 50.31 and break out above the black trend line.
