Global macro overview for 02/05/2017:
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at the level of 1.5%. This was the eighth meeting in a row when the rates were left unchanged. However, in the official statement the RBA sustained the upbeat outlook for the economy. Moreover, the RBA expected the inflation to accelerate as the economy strengthens, which is proved by the fact that the unemployment rate has dropped and the commodity prices are recovering. The RBA will possibly wait a little longer to tighten monetary policy until broad measures of growth and inflation gather speed.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 timeframe. The price has bounced from 50%Fibo at the level of 0.7439 and headed towards the next technical resistance at the level of 0.7557, but this breakout above the golden trend line looks false. The market conditions are still oversold, but the rally lacks momentum. Only a sustained violation of the technical resistance at the level of 0.7611 will change the outlook from bearish to bullish. Otherwise, the market will remain vulnerable.
